NAIC publishes an annual survey of the 200 most widely held stocks by investment clubs. Screening that list for stocks for a projected 5-year average return of 12% or more and for an upside /downside ratio of 3 or more, yields 34 stocks. We already own 11 of these stocks. Here is the list of stocks passing the screen.
The following table shows the performance of Moose Pond Investors through December 18, 2004. Total return is the return from the start of the portfolio on October 4, 2000. All returns except YTD are shown on an annualized basis.
|
Stocks
Only |
Stocks
& Cash |
VG 500
Fund |
S&P 500
|
Russell 2000
|
Unit
Value |
|
| 2001 |
37.9%
|
30.8%
|
-10.3%
|
-11.9%
|
2.5%
|
$11.970
|
| 2002 |
-23.4%
|
-21.1%
|
-21.5%
|
-22.1%
|
-20.5%
|
$9.707
|
| 2003 |
35.1%
|
27.9%
|
30.7%
|
28.7%
|
47.3%
|
$11.802
|
| YTD |
11.6%
|
10.5%
|
10.3%
|
7.4%
|
15.3%
|
$12.615
|
| Total |
12.6%
|
10.5%
|
10.4%
|
$12.867
|
Since uninvested cash reduces overall return, the table shows both overall performance of the portfolio and, separately, performance of the stocks in the portfolio. Portfolio Record Keeper was used to make these calculations. The table also shows the IRR that would have resulted from making identical investments in Vanguard’s S&P 500 index fund.
Our Top 10 Winners and Losers
Our all time winners have been: LOW (+186%), JCI (+140%), PDCO (+84%), ORLY (+77%) and COF (+72%). Our losers have been: OCA (-61%), CTS (-35%), INTC (-31%), PFE (-28%), and MRK (-16%). Of the losers, we are still holding INTC, PFE and MRK.