The Coiled Spring Effect

Market forces are not always rational. Sometimes, a company continues to grow its earnings but its stock price gets stuck in a rut, trading within the same price range for several years. Earnings continue to grow but the price stays about the same. This phenomenon can be observed in the graph in Section 1 of the stock selection guide and also in the table in Section 3 (falling high and low PEs). Sooner or later, the market will “discover” the stock and the price will quickly adjust upward and then follow earnings more closely. Patient investors are rewarded. This is the coiled spring effect.

Three quality stocks that fall into this category are Wal-Mart Stores (WMT), Microsoft (MSFT) and the Coca-Cola Company (KO). They are discussed below. Moose Pond currently holds Wal-Mart.

Wal-Mart Stores (WMT)

SSG and PERT A (17 Dec 2005) | Google “stocks: wmt” | Company Website

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT) operates retail stores in various formats in the United States and internationally. It has two segments: The Wal-Mart Stores and The SAM’S CLUB. The Wal-Mart Stores segment includes Discount Stores, Supercenters, and Neighborhood Markets in the United States, as well as Walmart.com. As of July 31, 2005, Wal-Mart operated 1,276 Wal-Mart stores, 1,838 Supercenter, 92 Neighborhood Markets, and 556 SAM’s Clubs in 50 states in the United States. The company operates various retail formats in Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Germany, Mexico, Puerto Rico, South Korea, and the United Kingdom.

Growth. Value Line projects 3-5 year revenue growth of 12.5% and EPS growth of 13.5%. Reuters reports an analysts consensus EPS growth of 13.7% (based on 16 analysts). M* projects future growth to decline from 13% to 10%. The attached stock selection guide (SSG) assumes revenue growth of 11% and EPS growth of 11.4%. This resulting in a 5-yr EPS of $4.40.

Quality. Wal-Mart is a high quality company. Part 1 of the SSG shows very consistent revenue and earnings growth. From Part 2 of the SSG we see that Wal-Mart has averaged a 20% return on equity over the last five years. Part 2 of the SSG and the PERT chart, and PERT graph (see attached SSG), show consistent pretax margins slightly over 5%. M* gives Wal-Mart a stewardship grade of A. Value Line rates Wal-Mart financial strength A++ and earnings predictability of 100. That is as good as it gets. The Robertson quality rating is 82.3.

Valuation. Wal-Mart has a projected average return (PAR) of 14.3% and total return of 18.2%. See SSG. (Manifest Investing projects PAR as 14.35%.) U/D ratio for Wal-Mart is 10 to 1 and the buy price using 25%-50%-25% zoning is $60.30. (Current price is $49.27.) M* rates Wal-Mart undervalued with five stars.

Microsoft Company

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) engages in the development, manufacture, license, and support of software products for various computing devices worldwide. Its Client segment offers operating systems for servers, personal computers (PCs), and intelligent devices. The company’s Server and Tools segment provides server applications and developer tools, as well as training and certification services.

Growth. Value Line projects 3-5 year revenue growth of 12.5% and EPS growth of 13.5%. Reuters reports an analysts consensus EPS growth of 11.5% (based on 20 analysts). M* projects future growth at 10%. The attached SSG assumes revenue growth of 9.5% and EPS growth of 10.9%. This resulting in a 5year EPS of $2.03.

Quality. Microsoft is a high quality company. Part 1 of the SSG shows consistent revenue and earnings growth. From Part 2 of the SSG we see that MSFT has averaged a 17.1% return on equity over the last five years with no debt less.Part 2 of the SSG and the PERT chart, and PERT graph (see attached SSG), show consistent pretax margins over 40%. M* gives Microsoft a stewardship grade of A. Value Line rates Dell’s financial strength A++ and earnings predictability of 90. The Robertson quality rating is 83.2 (a rating above 65 is excellent).

Valuation. MSFT has a PAR of 15.2% and TR of 18.1%. See SSG. (Manifest Investing projects PAR as 17.7%.) U/D ratio for MSFT is 7.7 to 1 and the buy price using 25%-50%-25% zoning is $32.10. M* rates MSFT five stars meaning it is undervalued.

Coca-Cola Company

The Coca-Cola Company (KO) engages in manufacturing, distributing, and marketing nonalcoholic beverage concentrates and syrups worldwide. The company also produces, markets, and distributes juices and juice drinks, as well as water products. It sells beverage concentrates and syrups to bottling and canning operators, distributors, fountain wholesalers, and fountain retailers.

Growth. Value Line projects 3-5 year revenue growth of 6% and EPS growth of 75%. Reuters reports an analysts consensus EPS growth of 8.7% (based on 6 analysts). M* projects future growth at 5% and operating margins at 25%. The attached SSG assumes revenue growth of 6% and EPS growth of 6.8%. This resulting in a 5-yr EPS of $3.03.

Quality. Coca-Cola is a quality company. Part 1 of the SSG shows consistent revenue and earnings growth. From Part 2 of the SSG we see that MSFT has averaged a 35.2% return on equity over the last five years. Part 2 of the SSG and the PERT chart, and PERT graph (see attached SSG), show consistent pretax margins around 30%. M* gives Coca-Cola a stewardship grade of C. Value Line rates Coca-Cola’s financial strength A++ and earnings predictability of 90. The Robertson quality rating is 82.1.

Valuation. Coca-Cola has a PAR of 12.7% and TR of 18.1%. See SSG. (Manifest Investing projects PAR as 11.5%.) U/D ratio for Coca-Cola is 7.7 to 1 and the buy price using 25%-50%-25% zoning is $47.60. (Current price is $41.21.) M* rates Coca-Cola undervalued with five stars. While Coca-Cola is not a classic NAIC growth stock, it has the potential for a good return with little risk.