We invest in quality companies that grow their earnings based on a sound business model. We buy these stocks when they are priced to provide superior long term returns.
While many investors and mutual funds invest in either “growth” or “value” stocks, we
look for companies that have both attributes. Growth, quality, and value are interrelated.
A company should have a sound business model that has demonstrated consistent growth in revenue and earnings over the past 3 to 5 years. The company also should have the potential to sustain growth in revenue and earnings into the foreseeable future.
The quality of a company, which usually reflects strong management, manifests itself in several ways, including: (1) consistent historical growth in revenue and earnings, (2) steady or increasing pre-tax profit margins, (3) steady or increasing return on equity that is greater than the industry median and is generally greater than 15%, and (4) a strong balance sheet.
Value Line ratings of B++ or better for Financial Strength and 85 or better for Earnings Predictability correlate well with quality and good management. We also compare each company’s prospects for future growth and net profit margins with other companies in the same industry. The Manifest Investing quality rating combines these four factors into a single 100 point rating.
Superior long term returns can be assessed in two ways – (1) by calculating intrinsic value for a company using discounted cash flow or (2) estimating the projected average return using a stock selection guide or similar calculation. Using the stock selection guide, we look for a projected average return (PAR) greater than 15%. We also look for quality stocks that sell below their intrinsic value. Morningstar uses a discounted cash flow analysis to determine the fair market (or intrinsic) value of a stock. Stocks rated 4 and 5 stars sell below their intrinsic value. It is generally easier – although not as precise – to compare stocks using their projected average return from the stock selection guide.
We prefer companies that, if purchased, offer the possibility of price earnings (PE) ratio expansion. We generally avoid companies with high PEs, particularly when the PEs have been contracting in recent years. High growth stocks with high PEs are particularly vulnerable to large downward price adjustments if the growth outlook for the company slows down.
Portfolio management is as important, perhaps more important, as selecting good stocks. Several general principles guide our portfolio management:
Welcome to the weblog for Moose Pond Investors. We are an on-line investment club made up of friends and family located in the states of California, Florida, Maine, Minnesota, New Jersey, Ohio and Virginia. This weblog is an extension of our on-line investment club.  It contains information about the stocks in our portfolio and ideas for new stocks to buy. Feel free to provide comments to the postings.
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