Performance for 2004
The following table shows the performance of Moose Pond Investors through December 31, 2004. Total return is the return from the start of the portfolio on October 4, 2000. All returns are shown on an annualized basis.
|
Stocks
Only |
Stocks
& Cash |
VG 500
Fund |
S&P 500
|
Russell 2000
|
Unit
Value |
|
| 2004 |
16.1%
|
13.8%
|
10.3%
|
10.88%
|
17.0%
|
$13.256
|
| 2003 |
35.1%
|
23.1%
|
30.7%
|
28.7%
|
47.3%
|
$11.802
|
| 2002 |
-23.4%
|
-19.1%
|
-21.5%
|
-22.1%
|
-20.5%
|
$9.707
|
| 2001 |
37.9%
|
13.8%
|
-10.3%
|
-11.9%
|
2.5%
|
$11.970
|
| Total |
14.6%
|
10.3%
|
7.8%
|
Since uninvested cash reduces overall return, the table shows both overall performance of the portfolio and, separately, performance of the stocks in the portfolio. Portfolio Record Keeper and bivio.com were used to make these calculations. The table also shows the IRR that would have resulted from making identical investments in Vanguard’s S&P 500 index fund.
Winners and Losers
Our winners for the year have been: FDS (+46.7%), LNCR (+41.2%), COF (+37.0%), PDCO (+36.4%), and CBH (+28.5%). Our losers for same period have been: PFE (-24.8%), PAYX (-10.9%), INTC (-15.3%), UTSI (-5.5%), and FNM (-3.9%).
UTStarcom, Inc. (UTSI)
SSG and PERT A (12-19-2004) | Google Stocks | Company Website
Stock Selection Guide Updated. The SSG for UTStarcom has been revised. UTSI is a higher risk company than others in our portfolio but has the potential for significant return if it resumes even part of its historical growth rates. A recent webcast presented at the Lehman Brothers T4 conference on December 10 provides a good current overview.
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Quality Growth Screen
NAIC publishes an annual survey of the 200 most widely held stocks by investment clubs. Screening that list for stocks for a projected 5-year average return of 12% or more and for an upside /downside ratio of 3 or more, yields 34 stocks. We already own 11 of these stocks. Here is the list of stocks passing the screen.
Historical Performance
The following table shows the performance of Moose Pond Investors through December 18, 2004. Total return is the return from the start of the portfolio on October 4, 2000. All returns except YTD are shown on an annualized basis.
|
Stocks
Only |
Stocks
& Cash |
VG 500
Fund |
S&P 500
|
Russell 2000
|
Unit
Value |
|
| 2001 |
37.9%
|
30.8%
|
-10.3%
|
-11.9%
|
2.5%
|
$11.970
|
| 2002 |
-23.4%
|
-21.1%
|
-21.5%
|
-22.1%
|
-20.5%
|
$9.707
|
| 2003 |
35.1%
|
27.9%
|
30.7%
|
28.7%
|
47.3%
|
$11.802
|
| YTD |
11.6%
|
10.5%
|
10.3%
|
7.4%
|
15.3%
|
$12.615
|
| Total |
12.6%
|
10.5%
|
10.4%
|
$12.867
|
Since uninvested cash reduces overall return, the table shows both overall performance of the portfolio and, separately, performance of the stocks in the portfolio. Portfolio Record Keeper was used to make these calculations. The table also shows the IRR that would have resulted from making identical investments in Vanguard’s S&P 500 index fund.
Our Top 10 Winners and Losers
Our all time winners have been: LOW (+186%), JCI (+140%), PDCO (+84%), ORLY (+77%) and COF (+72%). Our losers have been: OCA (-61%), CTS (-35%), INTC (-31%), PFE (-28%), and MRK (-16%). Of the losers, we are still holding INTC, PFE and MRK.
Report for November 2004
Annualized Return (IRR): 7.6% YTD and 9.0% since Oct. 5, 2000
Summary Report | PERT | Trend Report | Offense Report | Defense Report
At the end of November, the Moose Pond Investors’ portfolio had the following weighted averages: projected total return of 21.4%, projected average return of 14.7%, upside / downside ratio of 4.1 to 1 and a relative value of 91.8. These are all very good averages. The portfolio has 7.6% of its assets in cash.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Current SSG and PERT A (11-29-2004) | Google: “Stocks: JNJ” | Company Website
Stock Selection Guide Updated. The SSG for Johnson & Johnson has been revised. JNJ remains a high quality company and is within the “buy” range.
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