Some Portfolio Adjustments?

Here is the Public Dashboard from Manifest Investing for the Moose Pond portfolio. Overall, the portfolio shows a projected average return of 15.6% and a quality rating of 72.2.  The dashboard is forward looking. Manifest Investing uses data from Value Line, Yahoo Finance, and other sources to estimate revenue growth, profit margins, and P/E five years out.  From this projected data is is easy to project earnings per share and the future price (P/E x EPS).  So the dashboard provides a method of comparing stocks within the portfolio.  Note that the amount for a given stock is irrelevant in this analysis.  What the company might do going forward counts.

Looking across the Moose Pond portfolio, we see a few stocks that warrant a close look.

• Helmerich & Payne has a PAR of 5.7%.  This oil field services company has had a good run and is up 78% since we purchased it last June. It is 6.2% of the portfolio.  We could take a small profit and sell some of this stock.
• Brown & Brown has been a relatively unexciting holding.  We purchased in March 2004. It is down 10% and represents about 1.4% of the portfolio. We might want to consider replacing it.
• AIG has been the worst performer in the portfolio (and a good example of why diversification is so important).  It is down 64% since we bought it last June.  This is one of those financial stocks that will turn when the financial sector finally does.  At some point we may want to add to our AIG holding, if we don’t purchase Berkshire Hathaway.
• We might want to increase our position on few sticks with high PARs, Lowes (21.6%) and Garmin 26.7%.  Lowes is 2.5% of our portfolio and Garmin is 1.4%.

Take a close look at the portfolio dashboard and the portfolio valuation report at Bivio.com.  We need to make some adjustments to our portfolio.